Tuesday, July 15, 2008

21.6% inflation

The U.S. Labor Department reports that whiolesale prices jumped 1.8 percent in June. I expect the increase to level out a little, but if you maintained 1.8 over an entire year that annualizes to an inflation rate of nearly 22%. Most of this increase is due to the large jump in the price of fuel and food, in case you haven't noticed.

The "core inflation" rate went up a more reasonable 0.2%. This is the price increase of things at the retail level and excludes food and fuel. This means that manufacturers and retailers are really eating their cost increases right now.

Some predictions from me:
  • I think off shore drilling is inevitable.
  • Alaska, too.
  • California voters will approve funding for the LA to SF high speed rail line.
  • Earlier I would have said Obama will win in November, but right now I think McCain is saying the things that most voters now want to hear. That is, "drill, drill, drill."
  • Interbike will be huge this year.
  • Voters will increase calls for mass transit and bike facilities.
  • Unprecedented job losses, either this year or the next.
  • More bicycling all around. More golf carts and other electric mobility devices -- scooters and e-bikes and so forth, too.
Don't forget the contest!


  1. Well, if you're going to be optimistic about increased bicycle facilities & mass transit.. can't we also be optimistic about energy independence?

    After all, oil is STILL finite whether there's more in Alaska or not. Drilling would just be putting a band-aid on a band-aid. & heck, even Iran is running on duel-fuel cars that take gasoline or natural gas. Their goal is to not need gasoline anymore. Oh, and the Brazilians are all over ethanol. The Chinese are going methanol. Are we going to be left behind licking the bottom of the barrel while other countries go on untouched?

    When we wanted to go to the moon, we had 10 years to create the technology and lots of political will to back it. Now we HAVE the technology.. but where's the political will?


  2. I agree the HSR bond issue has a pretty good chance of passing in Nov.

    But do you think we'll actually get a working railway out of it?

    I fear a statewide version of BART-to-SJ :(

  3. Hey if your crystal ball is so clear I need to borrow it. The markets are getting crazy and even your backyard BankAmerica is trading at prices not seen since W was first elected in 2000. What's the stock's bottom price in this selloff and where will it be 3 years from now?

    Thanks, I could use some help,

    PS. AsT Boone explains, "we cannot drill our way out of this problem".

  4. T Boone, indeed... (shudder.)

    When we wanted to go to the moon, our "leadership" wasn't quite as thoroughly corrupt as it is now, I don't believe.
    It takes leadership to inspire people to do that odd thing of working together and sacrificing; without it the "each man for himself" stuff takes over and then we have "nothing to fear but fear itself" - which is, alas, something worthy of fear.

    Part of me wonders wehther there isn't *some* way to surprise people into discovering that we no, honestly, really DO NOT have to be this dependent!!! (like having us actually survive a few days without gasoline...)